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The December 2008 newsletter with “We are finally done with 2008, so what will happen for 2009? I believe resales will have year-to-year monthly increases starting at the end of the 2nd quarter with new construction following two quarters later or the end of the year”. It sure looks like this will come true, as July should have positive year-to-year
increases in closings for all single family.
The reason is that at the end of June there were 8,001 pending sales for all single family, while at the end of June 2008 there were about 10% less or 7,248. We are indeed heading up, but on a very cautious note, as the overall economy stills looks very weak for the rest of the year.
The numbers for June still were down for all single family, but by the least percentage decline this year. There were 4,773 closings for all single family in June. This is down 12.4% from June 2008, but after lags are reported we may be only down about 7-8%.
There were 4,105 closings in June for single family detached or a decline of 12.3% from the same year ago period. While single family attached had 668 closings in June or a decline of 12.8% from June 2008.
Average closed prices are continuing to head back up. The average sale price for all single family in June was $209,999 or the 4th consecutive month to month increase and $37,000 above the February low of $172,860.
The average price for single family detached in June was $217,790. This was a decline of 13.4% from June 2008, but $42,000 above the February recession low.
The average price for single family attached was $162,121 in June. This was a decline 9.4% from June 2008, but $21,000 above the April recession low.
Increased demand and lower inventories produce increases in price. If this trend continues, expect prices to continue to increase.
With lower inventories and increased demand you should also expect reduced expired & withdrawn listings. There were 1,998 withdrawn listings for all single family in June versus 3,121 in June 2008. There were 5,103 expired listings for all single family in June versus 7,040 in June 2008. Combined, there were 3,000+ less expired and withdrawn listings in June 2009 versus June 2008.
Months-supply of homes is moderating, as inventories decline.
Single family detached at the end of June is down over 10% from end of June 2008. Single family attached is still increasing, but expect some auctions to clear out a lot of the high priced new construction that is not selling. As I mentioned at the beginning of the letter, it looks like we are heading up, but we are not out of the woods yet. A major hurricane hitting the oil centers, war breaking out in the Middle East, inflation picking up, terrorist attacks, etc and any positive trending would be reversed. In the mean time, find your buyers a home, as this is absolutely the time to buy.
Courtesy
FMLS and Steve Palm Smart Numbers
May 2009 Market Report
Great news! I ended April’s newsletter with “May is now a key month, as I am expecting to see a year-to-year increase in
homes going under contract, which we have not seen in a very long time”, and we got it! There were 3,643 binding
agreements for all single family in May for the Metro Atlanta core counties, versus 3,601 for May 2008.
There still is a chance for May 2009 to be less than May 2008, as many of these contracts will not make it to close.
However, for now we are positive and that is very good to see. There were also 7,761 homes under contract at the end of May versus 7,689 at the end of May 2008 and we have not had this happen since 2006.
Hopefully this trend will continue and we can start reporting year-to-year monthly increases for closings, because May was again negative for all single family.
There were 4,009 closings for all single family in May. This is a decline of 24.7% from May 2008 and the 30th year-toyear percentage decline out of the past 33 periods.
There were 528 closings for single family attached in May. This is a decline 33.6% from May 2008 and a 60% decline from May 2006.
There were 3,481 closings for single family detached in May. This is a decline of 23.1% from May 2008 and the 23rd year-to-year monthly double digit percentage decline over the past 33 periods.
The average sale price for single family detached in May was $199,668. This is the 3rd straight monthly increase in sale price and this trend should continue if demand continues to show signs of improvement. May’s average was still $75,000 below May 2007’s average sale price.
The average price for single family attached was $145,312 in May. This is a decline of 20.1% from May 2008 and the 18th consecutive year-to-year monthly decline.
There were 1,846 withdrawn listings for all single family in May. This is the 10th consecutive year-to-year monthly decline and more than 800 less withdrawn listings than there were in May 2008.
There were 4,455 expired listings for all single family in May. This is a large drop from May 2008’s 6,226 expired listings and 7th consecutive year-to-year monthly decline. There have been 5,600 less expired listings for year-to-date January-May 2009 versus the same time frame in 2008.
Inventory levels for all single family dropped again, as the inventory at the end of May was more than 16,000 less listings than there was at the end of May 2008. Below are the inventory levels for all single family at the end of May since 1999.
May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 15,793 20,026 26,484 32,658 37,937 42,425 43,755 51,527 68,340 69,638
May-09
53,081
There are a lot of positive signs pointing to increased demand for housing. However, rising interest rates, higher gas prices, and increased world unrest could put a damper on our turnaround.
Courtesy FMLS & Steve Palm, Smart Numbers
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